Measurement | Incrementality | Meta
Challenge
easyJet’s MMM guides major budget decisions, but Meta’s impact was hard to pin down. Social sat tightly correlated with other digital channels, and the model’s confidence intervals for Meta were too wide to trust. The result was hesitation: no clear read on incrementality, no clear path to smarter investment.
Solution
We fixed the signal first, improving conversion tracking so results were reliable in a privacy-first world. Then we ran a controlled lift test with a true holdout and two live strategies to see what Meta was really driving. We pressure-tested the results across markets to make sure they held up. Finally, we fed those learnings back into the MMM so Meta’s impact showed up clearly and could be acted on.
Results
Once we separated signal from noise, Meta became a channel where easyJet could invest with confidence. The high-value audience strategy delivered clear incremental lift, and the improved causal inputs dramatically tightened the MMM’s certainty around social. With measurement stabilized, easyJet was able to scale spend knowing the gains were real.
"Kepler’s technical expertise in privacy-first measurement has been instrumental in evolving our digital strategy. By embracing incrementality, we’ve gained a deeper understanding of how our media spend drives real-world actions, ensuring our marketing investments are consistently tied to tangible business growth."
